Paxman356
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Message Posted: Nov 30, 2009 10:26:37 PM
I am starting a new thread here! It is for discussion on "The Spike Line" which is replacing the "Fair Price".
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Nov 27, 2009 9:45:24 PM
There will be no posting until Monday. Have a good weekend!
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2009 9:09:17 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9338 UP 0.0748
Fair price adjustment: 0.5994
Fair Price: 2.5332
Average selling price 2.5230
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0102
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.369 / $2.699
Speedway Low/High: $2.399 / $2.659
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9538 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.638
Indy average ( $2.523 ) is $0.115 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.983 UP 0.0585
Fair price adjustment: 0.8228
Fair Price: 2.8060
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8244
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0184
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6890 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
A big spike up in the commodities market today put us right up against the "spike line". I don't think we will see a repeat of last year, however, as it really isn't that desperately high like it was last year. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
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dbgindy
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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2009 5:30:51 AM
As always thanks for the info & insight Pax.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2009 11:38:33 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8590 DOWN 0.0654
Fair price adjustment: 0.6041
Fair Price: 2.4631
Average selling price 2.5520
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0889
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.399 / $2.699
Speedway Low/High: $2.399 / $2.659
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8790 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.640
Indy average ( $2.552 ) is $0.088 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.925 DOWN 0.0352
Fair price adjustment: 0.8187
Fair Price: 2.7434
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8253
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0819
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6890 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
The commodities market took a tumble, and that means there is a lot of space for prices to fall through Thanksgiving.
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dacpack
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2009 4:53:28 PM
Yes, I too appreciate your effort. I check out this tread about 4 times a week, and have proved to be valuable on MANY occasions. I can see how the The Gas Game
will be handy.
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steviemc
All-Star Author
Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2009 7:30:47 AM
Paxman, thanks for all you do. The info you post is very valuable.
After looking at the new page at gasgame, my only suggestion is that it would be nice if the postings were done as a blog. That way readers could subscribe to it.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 23, 2009 6:12:52 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9244 UP 0.0113
Fair price adjustment: 0.6087
Fair Price: 2.5331
Average selling price 2.5780
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0449
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.479 / $2.699
Speedway Low/High: $2.489 / $2.659
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9444 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.651
Indy average ( $2.578 ) is $0.073 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.960 DOWN 0.0132
Fair price adjustment: 0.8212
Fair Price: 2.7811
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8230
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0419
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6890 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
Margins are getting thinner, but I don't think they are thin enough to bring on a spike now. Big question is, with the DOE report coming on Wednesday (as it will for the remainder of the year) will it cause the commodities market to rise enough to make Speedway jump on or before Thanksgiving? I would say I doubt it, but then again, I think I doubted it last year, too.
I am coming up on one year of doing this, and I have said previously that I had a surprise for you. It will be a format change. I will no longer post numbers on the GasBuddy website, but I will still post a report here for discussion. The numbers, and graphs, will be moving here. I'm doing it this way because I feel it looks better, and you can digest a lot more data at a time, as well. Not to mention it's a lot quicker than posting to the individual sites for me. I will start a new "discussion" thread when the time comes, and it will have a link at the top so it is easier to find.
Please feel free to tell me what you think. I can be persuaded to change my mind if you don't like it. But I hope it will make all of our lives easier.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 20, 2009 10:16:46 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9131 UP 0.0261
Fair price adjustment: 0.6079
Fair Price: 2.5210
Average selling price 2.6240
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1030
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.529 / $2.699
Speedway Low/High: $2.529 / $2.659
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9331 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.653
Indy average ( $2.624 ) is $0.029 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.973 DOWN 0.0183
Fair price adjustment: 0.8221
Fair Price: 2.7952
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8273
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0321
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6890 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
The Chicago spot rose 2.6 cents late today as buyers saw the Chicago discount start to evaporate. Still plenty of room for prices to fall over the weekend.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 19, 2009 6:38:33 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8870 DOWN 0.0469
Fair price adjustment: 0.6061
Fair Price: 2.4931
Average selling price 2.6430
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1499
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.559 / $2.699
Speedway Low/High: $2.559 / $2.659
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9070 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.645
Indy average ( $2.643 ) is $0.002 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.991 DOWN 0.0472
Fair price adjustment: 0.8234
Fair Price: 2.8148
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8267
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0119
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6890 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
Commodities fell today, opening up some big margins. Gas prices should fall into the weekend, and hopefully well into next week as long as we don't see a spike up tomorrow in commodities.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 18, 2009 5:24:24 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9339 UP 0.0115
Fair price adjustment: 0.6094
Fair Price: 2.5433
Average selling price 2.6520
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1087
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.519 / $2.699
Speedway Low/High: $2.599 / $2.659
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9539 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.644
Indy average ( $2.652 ) is $0.008 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.039 DOWN 0.0099
Fair price adjustment: 0.8267
Fair Price: 2.8653
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8186
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0467
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6990 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
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Message Posted: Nov 17, 2009 10:13:06 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9529 UP 0.0486
Fair price adjustment: 0.6107
Fair Price: 2.5636
Average selling price 2.5310
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0954 (measured with $2.659 spike price)
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.339 / $2.689
Speedway Low/High: $2.599 / $2.659
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9729 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.636
Indy average ( $2.531 ) is $0.105 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.049 UP 0.0365
Fair price adjustment: 0.8274
Fair Price: 2.8759
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8165
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0594
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6990 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 16, 2009 10:10:34 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9043 UP 0.0631
Fair price adjustment: 0.6073
Fair Price: 2.5116
Average selling price 2.4380
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0736
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.329 / $2.599
Speedway Low/High: $2.329 / $2.519
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9243 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.634
Indy average ( $2.438 ) is $0.196 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.012 UP 0.0609
Fair price adjustment: 0.8248
Fair Price: 2.8368
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8147
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0221
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6990 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
With prices falling over the weekend, and a spike up in the commodities market today we are seeing negative margins across the board. I foresee a spike tomorrow. With the fair price at $2.51, I can see Speedway pushing that up to $2.60-2.65 in Indiana, five cents more in Michigan and NW Indiana (it's quite possible the Michigan border will match Indiana as it has the last couple spikes.)
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 13, 2009 8:10:19 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8412 DOWN 0.0168
Fair price adjustment: 0.6029
Fair Price: 2.4441
Average selling price 2.4820
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0379
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.379 / $2.599
Speedway Low/High: $2.379 / $2.539
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8612 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.643
Indy average ( $2.482 ) is $0.161 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.951 DOWN 0.0224
Fair price adjustment: 0.8206
Fair Price: 2.7717
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8220
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0503
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6990 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 13, 2009 12:41:16 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8580 DOWN 0.0547
Fair price adjustment: 0.6041
Fair Price: 2.4621
Average selling price 2.4950
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0329
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.399 / $2.659
Speedway Low/High: $2.579 / $2.779
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8780 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.642
Indy average ( $2.495 ) is $0.147 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.974 DOWN 0.0673
Fair price adjustment: 0.8221
Fair Price: 2.7956
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8605
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0648
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.7590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 11, 2009 6:21:35 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9127 UP 0.0203
Fair price adjustment: 0.6079
Fair Price: 2.5206
Average selling price 2.5220
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0014
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.399 / $2.699
Speedway Low/High: $2.399 / $2.649
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9327 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.658
Indy average ( $2.522 ) is $0.136 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.041 UP 0.0385
Fair price adjustment: 0.8269
Fair Price: 2.8677
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8267
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0410
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6390 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
While Indianapolis is near break even, Indiana and Michigan are not. I don't expect to see a spike anywhere tomorrow, but if we do, it is more likely to be in Indianapolis than anywhere else.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 11, 2009 1:32:35 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8924 UP 0.0706
Fair price adjustment: 0.6065
Fair Price: 2.4989
Average selling price 2.5390
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0401
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.399 / $2.699
Speedway Low/High: $2.399 / $2.739
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9024 ( $0.010 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.655
Indy average ( $2.539 ) is $0.116 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.002 DOWN 0.0054
Fair price adjustment: 0.8242
Fair Price: 2.8265
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8362
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0098
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6390 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
Even with the Chicago Spot going up 7 cents today, we are still 4 cents above margin. We shall see what the DOE report brings us tomorrow.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 10, 2009 12:46:01 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8218 DOWN 0.0200
Fair price adjustment: 0.6015
Fair Price: 2.4233
Average selling price 2.5650
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1417
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.399 / $2.699
Speedway Low/High: $1.956 / $2.679
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8318 ( $0.010 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.664
Indy average ( $2.565 ) is $0.099 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.008 UP 0.0517
Fair price adjustment: 0.8245
Fair Price: 2.8322
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8236
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0086
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6390 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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SE3.5
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 10, 2009 8:40:06 AM
Ida is just another bet for the quick buck artists on the mercantile exchanges. Her effect will be gone in another day or so.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Nov 10, 2009 1:23:09 AM
Pax is too pooped to post tonight, so the numbers will have to wait until morning. A quick update on the markets though. While much of the nations commodities gasoline prices soared today on the news of TS Ida, the Chicago spot actually dropped... a whole 2 cents to $1.82. We had the chance of going up 5 cents instead. Good news for us indeed, the Chicago discount is back.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2009 8:09:23 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8418 DOWN 0.1109
Fair price adjustment: 0.6029
Fair Price: 2.4447
Average selling price 2.6130
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1683
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.469 / $2.739
Speedway Low/High: $2.499 / $2.729
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8518 ( $0.010 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.674
Indy average ( $2.613 ) is $0.061 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.956 DOWN 0.0591
Fair price adjustment: 0.8209
Fair Price: 2.7769
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8588
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0819
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.7590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 6, 2009 9:45:56 PM
Just a short update, I will post the numbers tomorrow.
Chicago Spot dropped more than 11 cents today to $1.8418. That should put us in a good spot for falling prices over the weekend. If commodities rebound on Monday, we could see a spike as early as Tuesday, but right now that doesn't seem likely.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 6, 2009 1:03:53 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9527 DOWN 0.0375
Fair price adjustment: 0.6107
Fair Price: 2.5634
Average selling price 2.6650
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1016
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.569 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.579 / $2.779
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9727 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.671
Indy average ( $2.665 ) is $0.006 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.015 DOWN 0.0401
Fair price adjustment: 0.8251
Fair Price: 2.8402
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8605
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0203
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.7590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
The commodities are down, which should mean lower prices going into the weekend.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 4, 2009 5:25:47 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9902 UP 0.0023
Fair price adjustment: 0.6133
Fair Price: 2.6035
Average selling price 2.6930
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0895
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.589 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.589 / $2.779
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.0102 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.672
Indy average ( $2.693 ) is $0.021 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.055 UP 0.0214
Fair price adjustment: 0.8279
Fair Price: 2.8831
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8613
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0217
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.7590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
The break even point is at +6-8, so we are safe from a spike for now. The commodities aren't letting up, however, so if you see prices start to drop, do look out for a spike early next week.
I'm working on some exciting stuff for the Fair Price threads, and I should be telling you at the beginning of next week. Just a hint, one part of it includes a new page at TheGasGame.com (for those who visit there often with a good eye, you may have already seen the "coming soon" page.) It is all to make my job in posting easier, and for you to see data in an easier format. I hope you will like it. This thread will not go away, however. I'll let you know how I will be working it out on Monday.
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Paxman356
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Indianapolis
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Message Posted: Nov 4, 2009 1:05:20 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9879 DOWN 0.0074
Fair price adjustment: 0.6132
Fair Price: 2.6011
Average selling price 2.7110
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1099
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.599 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.599 / $2.779
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.0079 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.677
Indy average ( $2.711 ) is $0.034 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.034 UP 0.0328
Fair price adjustment: 0.8264
Fair Price: 2.8602
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8525
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0076
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6990 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Nov 3, 2009 1:05:57 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9953 UP 0.0183
Fair price adjustment: 0.6137
Fair Price: 2.6090
Average selling price 2.7310
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1220
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.599 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.599 / $2.799
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.0153 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.680
Indy average ( $2.731 ) is $0.051 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.001 UP 0.0458
Fair price adjustment: 0.8241
Fair Price: 2.8251
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8535
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0284
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6990 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Nov 3, 2009 12:56:21 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9770 DOWN 0.0653
Fair price adjustment: 0.6124
Fair Price: 2.5894
Average selling price 2.7690
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1796
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.669 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.599 / $2.799
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9970 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.683
Indy average ( $2.769 ) is $0.086 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.955 DOWN 0.1085
Fair price adjustment: 0.8209
Fair Price: 2.7761
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8801
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1040
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.7790 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 30, 2009 9:55:26 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9770 DOWN 0.0653
Fair price adjustment: 0.6124
Fair Price: 2.5894
Average selling price 2.7690
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1796
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.669 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.599 / $2.799
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9970 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.683
Indy average ( $2.769 ) is $0.086 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.955 DOWN 0.1085
Fair price adjustment: 0.8209
Fair Price: 2.7761
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8801
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1040
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.7790 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
We had a roller coaster ride in prices this week. We finished up on a down note, so hopefully prices will start to fall faster.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 30, 2009 12:44:45 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.0423 UP 0.0205
Fair price adjustment: 0.6170
Fair Price: 2.6593
Average selling price 2.7790
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1197
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.659 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.599 / $2.799
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.0623 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.683
Indy average ( $2.779 ) is $0.096 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.064 UP 0.0450
Fair price adjustment: 0.8285
Fair Price: 2.8922
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8862
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0059
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.8590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
[Edited by: Paxman356 at 10/30/2009 12:47:34 AM EST]
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eviscerator
Rookie Author
Indianapolis
Posts:65
Points:76,900
Joined:Oct 2009
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Message Posted: Oct 29, 2009 8:28:25 AM
Thanks for the prediction. I heard the DOE report was going to be favorable, but it must have been really good!
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 28, 2009 8:14:11 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.0218 DOWN 0.0954
Fair price adjustment: 0.5655
Fair Price: 2.5873
Average selling price 2.7890
Margin over cost + profit: 0.2017
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.569 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.679 / $2.799
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.0418 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.681
Indy average ( $2.789 ) is $0.108 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.019 DOWN 0.0605
Fair price adjustment: 0.8253
Fair Price: 2.8440
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8888
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0448
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.8590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
With the big drop today I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing more stations drop. I'm hoping the commodities markets continue their sanity. If they can, we could see an average near $2.70 by weekend, and $2.65 by Monday.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 28, 2009 12:53:12 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.1172 UP 0.0245
Fair price adjustment: 0.5722
Fair Price: 2.6894
Average selling price 2.7140
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1096 (measured with $2.799 spike price)
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.549 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.789 / $2.799
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.1372 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.671
Indy average ( $2.714 ) is $0.043 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.079 UP 0.0061
Fair price adjustment: 0.8295
Fair Price: 2.9087
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8888
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0200
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.8590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
Indianapolis spiked today, so they will be safe for a spike for a while, unless the market explodes.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 27, 2009 12:51:01 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.0927 DOWN 0.0011
Fair price adjustment: 0.5705
Fair Price: 2.6632
Average selling price 2.6420
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0212
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.519 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.549 / $2.699
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.1177 ( $0.025 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.663
Indy average ( $2.642 ) is $0.021 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.073 DOWN 0.0400
Fair price adjustment: 0.8291
Fair Price: 2.9022
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8888
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0134
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.8590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
The markets fell for the third straight day, which would be impressive if the total fall wasn't 2+ cents. Since we also haven't seen gas prices fall all that much, we are very close to break even. Could we get a spike? Yes. Will we get a spike? It's too hard to tell. The powers that be in Ohio could hold off some more, seeing the trend downward in oil, but they could still be feeling the pinch.
Keep an eye on them tomorrow. You never know what they may cook up.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 24, 2009 12:52:12 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.0938 DOWN 0.0162
Fair price adjustment: 0.5706
Fair Price: 2.6644
Average selling price 2.6740
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0096
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.539 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.589 / $2.699
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.1188 ( $0.025 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.660
Indy average ( $2.674 ) is $0.014 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.113 DOWN 0.0190
Fair price adjustment: 0.8319
Fair Price: 2.9450
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8769
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0681
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.7590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 23, 2009 1:03:49 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.1100 DOWN 0.0043
Fair price adjustment: 0.5717
Fair Price: 2.6817
Average selling price 2.6830
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0013
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.539 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.609 / $2.699
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.1355 ( $0.025 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.628
Indy average ( $2.683 ) is $0.055 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.132 DOWN 0.0132
Fair price adjustment: 0.8332
Fair Price: 2.9653
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8709
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0944
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.7590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 5:14:31 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.1143 UP 0.0616
Fair price adjustment: 0.5720
Fair Price: 2.6863
Average selling price 2.6900
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0037
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.479 / $2.799
Speedway Low/High: $2.629 / $2.699
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.1393 ( $0.025 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.608
Indy average ( $2.690 ) is $0.082 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.145 UP 0.0605
Fair price adjustment: 0.8342
Fair Price: 2.9795
Average selling price (SSA): 2.8375
Margin over cost + profit: -0.1420
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.7590 / $2.899
Indy Diesel Chart
And thank you for your support.
We are in dangerous territory. The commodities market is up yet again, this time on a weak dollar. Fair price is at break even, which can mean a spike is close at hand. But, we have already had a spike this week, so another one is not as likely to come. But we just came off a weekend where the margin was thin, and Speedway might not want to repeat that again. But the last time commodities spiked up like this (in May) Speedway lagged behind so much that Indiana gas stations lost money on the sale of fuel. But... well, you get the idea.
It would be prudent to watch the prices as they may climb going into the weekend. Indiana could see $2.75-2.80, Michigan and NW Indiana could be 5-10 cents higher. Or, we could see prices stagnate or drop very slowly... only the people in Ohio know what will happen.
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dacpack
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:4,027
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Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 3:26:04 PM
Ditto. We all appreciate all of you effort! Personally, I have benefited from your postings.
[Edited by: dacpack at 10/21/2009 3:27:17 PM EST]
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dbgindy
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:24,355
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Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 4:22:32 AM
Pax don't worry about the timing. We just appreciate it that you do it regardless of the time posted. :-)
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:58:40 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.0527 UP 0.0205
Fair price adjustment: 0.5677
Fair Price: 2.6204
Average selling price 2.6130
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0786 (measured with $2.699 spike price)
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.439 / $2.709
Speedway Low/High: $2.659 / $2.699
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.0777 ( $0.025 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.587
Indy average ( $2.613 ) is $0.026 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
With my job working me 2nd shift, for the moment I will have to post this when I get home (except Wednesdays). Sorry for the lateness, but for now it can't be helped. Should be moving to 3rds in the near future, however, and while I'm not thrilled about that, at least I have a job.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 19, 2009 8:23:34 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.0322 UP 0.0079
Fair price adjustment: 0.5663
Fair Price: 2.5985
Average selling price 2.5250
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0735
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.449 / $2.599
Speedway Low/High: $2.439 / $2.559
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.0522 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.564
Indy average ( $2.525 ) is $0.039 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.090 UP 0.0300
Fair price adjustment: 0.8303
Fair Price: 2.9200
Average selling price (SSA): 2.7994
Margin over cost + profit: -0.1206
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6990 / $2.859
Indy Diesel Chart
The dam has gotta break sometime. Gas usually falls at least 2 cents on non-spike days, but over the weekend it didn't budge, or only went down a couple cents, depending on where you live. The average in Indianapolis is only 2.4ยข cheaper than the Thursday spike price. Stagnation like that shows stations are feeling the pinch. The fair price is 7 cents above the current average, too.
Expect a spike tomorrow. Most of Indiana will see 2.65-2.70, while Michigan will be 4-6 cents higher, and NW Indiana will be 5-10 cents higher.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 17, 2009 8:26:48 AM
I liked Wednesday's numbers so much, I posted them again yesterday. Thank you AFOS from Chicago for pointing it out to me. Here are Friday's numbers:
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $2.0243 UP 0.0369
Fair price adjustment: 0.5657
Fair Price: 2.5900
Average selling price 2.5480
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0420
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.399 / $2.599
Speedway Low/High: $2.499 / $2.559
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.0443 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.522
Indy average ( $2.548 ) is $0.026 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.060 UP 0.0191
Fair price adjustment: 0.8282
Fair Price: 2.8879
Average selling price (SSA): 2.7611
Margin over cost + profit: -0.1268
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6990 / $2.799
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 16, 2009 8:52:17 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8975 UP 0.0257
Fair price adjustment: 0.5568
Fair Price: 2.4543
Average selling price 2.4350
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0193
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.299 / $2.499
Speedway Low/High: $2.319 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9300 ( $0.033 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.482
Indy average ( $2.435 ) is $0.047 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.963 UP 0.0118
Fair price adjustment: 0.8214
Fair Price: 2.7841
Average selling price (SSA): 2.6850
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0991
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.5390 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
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dbgindy
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:24,355
Points:2,266,365
Joined:May 2004
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Message Posted: Oct 16, 2009 4:14:30 AM
Thanks for the facts & insight Pax.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 15, 2009 9:34:20 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.9874 UP 0.0899
Fair price adjustment: 0.5631
Fair Price: 2.5505
Average selling price 2.4760
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0085 (measured with $2.559 spike price)
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.299 / $2.599
Speedway Low/High: $2.499 / $2.559
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.0074 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.493
Indy average ( $2.476 ) is $0.017 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $2.041 UP 0.0779
Fair price adjustment: 0.8268
Fair Price: 2.8674
Average selling price (SSA): 2.7069
Margin over cost + profit: -0.1606
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.6490 / $2.759
Indy Diesel Chart
A big surge from the national commodities market today. Chicago spot gas is up almost 9 cents, diesel up another 8 cents. We saw a spike today in Indiana to $2.559, and Michigan to $2.599. Today's fair price is very close to break even. We probably won't see a spike in the morning, but if we see oil/RBOB spike up again in the morning, it could spike up in the afternoon or Saturday morning. I know this is rare, but it could be a necessity.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 14, 2009 8:10:24 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8975 UP 0.0257
Fair price adjustment: 0.5568
Fair Price: 2.4543
Average selling price 2.4350
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0193
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.299 / $2.499
Speedway Low/High: $2.319 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9300 ( $0.033 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.482
Indy average ( $2.435 ) is $0.047 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.963 UP 0.0118
Fair price adjustment: 0.8214
Fair Price: 2.7841
Average selling price (SSA): 2.6850
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0991
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.5390 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
There was no DOE report today because of the Columbus Day holiday. So will Speedway treat tomorrow as a Thursday or a Wednesday? If it is a Wednesday, they may wait for the DOE report before acting with a spike. If it's a Thursday they may spike at 9am as they normally do. Indiana could go to $2.50-2.55, Michigan and NW Indiana about 5 cents higher.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 13, 2009 6:51:30 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8718 UP 0.0328
Fair price adjustment: 0.5550
Fair Price: 2.4268
Average selling price 2.4470
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0202
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.319 / $2.519
Speedway Low/High: $2.359 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.9043 ( $0.033 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.478
Indy average ( $2.447 ) is $0.031 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.951 UP 0.0340
Fair price adjustment: 0.8206
Fair Price: 2.7715
Average selling price (SSA): 2.6015
Margin over cost + profit: -0.1700
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.5290 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
We are near the spike threshold, but tomorrow is Wednesday. I expect no spike tomorrow morning as we wait for the DOE report. But if things continue on as they are, we may see a spike as early as tomorrow afternoon.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 12, 2009 8:14:12 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8390 UP 0.0210
Fair price adjustment: 0.5527
Fair Price: 2.3917
Average selling price 2.4640
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0723
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.319 / $2.519
Speedway Low/High: $2.359 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8715 ( $0.033 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.477
Indy average ( $2.464 ) is $0.013 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.917 UP 0.0466
Fair price adjustment: 0.8182
Fair Price: 2.7351
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5862
Margin over cost + profit: -0.1488
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4990 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
Diesel is up. Gas is up again. We are well within the spike threshold, however. I see diesel coming up, but gas should stay steady for now.
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 9, 2009 8:37:22 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8180 DOWN 0.0017
Fair price adjustment: 0.5513
Fair Price: 2.3693
Average selling price 2.4790
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1097
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.279 / $2.499
Speedway Low/High: $2.389 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8505 ( $0.033 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.476
Indy average ( $2.479 ) is $0.003 over USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.870 UP 0.0159
Fair price adjustment: 0.8149
Fair Price: 2.6852
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5837
Margin over cost + profit: -0.1015
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4990 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 8, 2009 5:17:01 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8197 UP 0.0394
Fair price adjustment: 0.5514
Fair Price: 2.3711
Average selling price 2.3710
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1279 (measured with $2.499 spike price)
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.269 / $2.499
Speedway Low/High: $2.499 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8447 ( $0.025 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.469
Indy average ( $2.371 ) is $0.098 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.854 UP 0.0683
Fair price adjustment: 0.8138
Fair Price: 2.6682
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5837
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0845
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4990 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
Due to another reversal of the markets, we saw commodities in New York and Chicago spike up, again. We are already seeing an afternoon Speedway spike in Indiana to $2.49 ($2.55 in the NW counties). I expect Michigan will follow tomorrow, probably to $2.55.
[Edited by: Paxman356 at 10/8/2009 5:18:43 PM EST]
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Paxman356
Champion Author
Indianapolis
Posts:6,791
Points:450,690
Joined:Feb 2003
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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2009 7:52:14 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.7803 DOWN 0.0654
Fair price adjustment: 0.5486
Fair Price: 2.3289
Average selling price 2.3810
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0521
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.269 / $2.429
Speedway Low/High: $2.279 / $2.399
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8028 ( $0.023 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.467
Indy average ( $2.381 ) is $0.086 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.786 DOWN 0.0381
Fair price adjustment: 0.8090
Fair Price: 2.5951
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5843
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0108
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4990 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
A reversal of fortune today, but thanks to the national markets falling. Chicago spot reversed its upward trend yesterday. The likelihood of a spike tomorrow is now close to none. Sorry for the alarm yesterday.
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