Paxman356
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Message Posted: Oct 8, 2009 5:17:01 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8197 UP 0.0394
Fair price adjustment: 0.5514
Fair Price: 2.3711
Average selling price 2.3710
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1279 (measured with $2.499 spike price)
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.269 / $2.499
Speedway Low/High: $2.499 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8447 ( $0.025 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.469
Indy average ( $2.371 ) is $0.098 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.854 UP 0.0683
Fair price adjustment: 0.8138
Fair Price: 2.6682
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5837
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0845
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4990 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
Due to another reversal of the markets, we saw commodities in New York and Chicago spike up, again. We are already seeing an afternoon Speedway spike in Indiana to $2.49 ($2.55 in the NW counties). I expect Michigan will follow tomorrow, probably to $2.55.
[Edited by: Paxman356 at 10/8/2009 5:18:43 PM EST]
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2009 7:52:14 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.7803 DOWN 0.0654
Fair price adjustment: 0.5486
Fair Price: 2.3289
Average selling price 2.3810
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0521
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.269 / $2.429
Speedway Low/High: $2.279 / $2.399
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8028 ( $0.023 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.467
Indy average ( $2.381 ) is $0.086 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.786 DOWN 0.0381
Fair price adjustment: 0.8090
Fair Price: 2.5951
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5843
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0108
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4990 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
A reversal of fortune today, but thanks to the national markets falling. Chicago spot reversed its upward trend yesterday. The likelihood of a spike tomorrow is now close to none. Sorry for the alarm yesterday.
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dbgindy
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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2009 3:51:21 AM
As always thanks for the heads up Pax.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Oct 6, 2009 7:37:32 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.8457 UP 0.0543
Fair price adjustment: 0.5532
Fair Price: 2.3989
Average selling price 2.3860
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0129
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.229 / $2.429
Speedway Low/High: $2.299 / $2.399
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8757 ( $0.030 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.460
Indy average ( $2.386 ) is $0.074 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.853 UP 0.0518
Fair price adjustment: 0.8137
Fair Price: 2.6671
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5898
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0773
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4990 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
Bad news today for the Midwest. Exxon will close the 127,000 barrel per day vacuum distillation unit for maintenance. Their 238,000 barrel per day Joliet refinery in Illinois will be on minimum output starting later this month.
This caused the Chicago spot price to climb 5 cents today. It will also cause our prices to be higher in the near future as well. Expect a possible spike tomorrow at the earliest, and Thursday at the latest.
[Edited by: Paxman356 at 10/6/2009 7:39:47 PM EST]
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Oct 5, 2009 5:31:58 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.7914 UP 0.0255
Fair price adjustment: 0.5494
Fair Price: 2.3408
Average selling price 2.3350
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0582 (measured with $2.399 spike price)
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.239 / $2.429
Speedway Low/High: $2.399 / $2.399
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8014 ( $0.010 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.457
Indy average ( $2.335 ) is $0.122 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.802 DOWN 0.0102
Fair price adjustment: 0.8101
Fair Price: 2.6117
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5892
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0225
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4990 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Oct 2, 2009 8:26:24 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.7659 DOWN 0.0145
Fair price adjustment: 0.5476
Fair Price: 2.3135
Average selling price 2.2270
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0865
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.089 / $2.499
Speedway Low/High: $2.299 / $2.339
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.7759 ( $0.010 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.463
Indy average ( $2.227 ) is $0.236 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.812 DOWN 0.0281
Fair price adjustment: 0.8108
Fair Price: 2.6226
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5884
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0343
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4990 / $2.699
As I am writing this, I am noticing that Indiana Speedways have finally spiked. Please go to the Speedway thread for more info.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Oct 1, 2009 7:53:18 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.7804 UP 0.0038
Fair price adjustment: 0.5486
Fair Price: 2.3290
Average selling price 2.2320
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0970
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.125 / $2.404
Speedway Low/High: $2.099 / $2.349
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.7904 ( $0.010 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.468
Indy average ( $2.232 ) is $0.236 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.840 DOWN 0.0125
Fair price adjustment: 0.8128
Fair Price: 2.6527
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5884
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0643
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4790 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
No clue whether there will be a spike tomorrow. Could be, maybe should be, but won't commit after today's non-move.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Oct 1, 2009 12:58:28 PM
Looks like Speedway didn't jump today. The mid-day report from the Chicago commodities market puts the Chicago spot down almost 2 cents. We aren't out of the woods, yet, but it's a good sign that Speedway didn't move today. Too bad there are reports of others (like Family Express in NW Indiana) not doing the same.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 30, 2009 5:34:49 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.7766 UP 0.0978
Fair price adjustment: 0.5484
Fair Price: 2.3250
Average selling price 2.2550
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0700
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.154 / $2.403
Speedway Low/High: $2.129 / $2.359
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.7860 ( $1.238 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.479
Indy average ( $2.255 ) is $0.224 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.852 UP 0.1033
Fair price adjustment: 0.8137
Fair Price: 2.6661
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5888
Margin over cost + profit: -0.0773
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4790 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
A spike is looming, with a negative margin in my fair price formula. It's quite possible that the run-up on the markets won't transfer over to your local rack prices, but I'm 90% sure of a spike tomorrow.
Expect prices anywhere from $2.37-$2.42 in Indiana, 5 cents higher in Michigan, and with the Chicago RBOB only 1 cent over regular, it could be anywhere from 0-5 cents over the Indiana price.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 30, 2009 12:33:20 PM
Ugh, the DOE report was favorable for oil, but not as good for gas. Stockpiles were up for oil and down for gas, and coupled with a weakening dollar is causing an uptick in the commodities markets. Will know better at the end of the day what the deal is, but right now a spike is a greater possibility, I'd say 50-60%.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 29, 2009 7:04:28 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.6788 DOWN 0.0043
Fair price adjustment: 0.5415
Fair Price: 2.2203
Average selling price 2.2630
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0427
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.152 / $2.400
Speedway Low/High: $2.149 / $2.359
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.6888 ( $1.147 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.483
Indy average ( $2.263 ) is $0.220 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.749 UP 0.0069
Fair price adjustment: 0.8064
Fair Price: 2.5555
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5917
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0362
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4590 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
Today is much like yesterday. Tomorrow's DOE report on fuel stockpiles and usage should shed some light on where the commodities will go in to the weekend.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 28, 2009 7:18:30 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.6831 UP 0.0271
Fair price adjustment: 0.5418
Fair Price: 2.2249
Average selling price 2.2890
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0641
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.170 / $2.412
Speedway Low/High: $2.159 / $2.379
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.6831 ( $1.141 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.500
Indy average ( $2.289 ) is $0.211 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.742 UP 0.0057
Fair price adjustment: 0.8060
Fair Price: 2.5482
Average selling price (SSA): 2.5933
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0451
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.4590 / $2.699
Indy Diesel Chart
Slight uptick in commodities today matched with falling prices all weekend means the margins are shrinking. We are still well safe to not get a spike tomorrow. Here's hoping the next couple days give us a better forecast.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 25, 2009 7:05:32 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Chicago Spot: $1.6560 DOWN 0.0094
Fair price adjustment: ( 0.5399
Fair Price: 2.1959
Average selling price 2.3420
Margin over cost + profit: 0.1461
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.251 / $2.433
Speedway Low/High: $2.259 / $2.399
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.6560 ( $1.116 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.517
Indy average ( $2.342 ) is $0.175 under USA average
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Ultra Low Sulfer Diesel Spot: $1.737 DOWN 0.0101
Fair price adjustment: ( 0.8056
Fair Price: 2.5421
Average selling price (SSA): 2.6160
Margin over cost + profit: 0.0740
Indy Diesel Low/High (SSA): 2.5490 / $2.759
Indy Diesel Chart
Not much of a change going into the weekend. Big margins mean gas prices should continue to drop into next week, with ever so slight a chance for a spike on Tuesday, but only if the markets turn around drastically.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 25, 2009 2:06:45 AM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.6466 +$0.5393 ) = $2.1859
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.362 - $2.1859 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1761
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.726 +$0.8048 )= $2.5312
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.617 - $2.531 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.0860
Indy Diesel Chart
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.268 / $2.448
Speedway Low/High: $2.269 / $2.399
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.6466 ( $0.000 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.530
Indy average ( $2.362 ) is $0.168 under USA average
Late today because of a hospital visit for baby Pax. It looks good for the little guy, but he's got high biliruben making him jaundiced and constipated.
Good news on the commodities markets in New York and Chicago as everything fell, hard. Prices at the pump will have a hard time catching up, but should continue to fall until next week.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 23, 2009 8:08:15 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.7199 +$0.5444 ) = $2.2643
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.380 - $2.2643 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1157
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.809 +$0.8107 )= $2.6201
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.621 - $2.620 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.0006
Indy Diesel Chart
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.317 / $2.467
Speedway Low/High: $2.309 / $2.429
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.7199 ( $0.000 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.534
Indy average ( $2.380 ) is $0.154 under USA average
A good DOE report means a big drop in the Chicago spot, which means prices should continue to tumble going into the weekend.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 22, 2009 5:52:56 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.7966 +$0.5498 ) = $2.3464
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.399 - $2.3464 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0526
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.867 +$0.8147 )= $2.6818
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.622 - $2.682 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0595
Indy Diesel Chart
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.334 / $2.466
Speedway Low/High: $2.329 / $2.449
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.7966 ( $0.000 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.543
Indy average ( $2.399 ) is $0.144 under USA average
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 21, 2009 9:05:49 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.7717 +$0.5480 ) = $2.3197
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.414 - $2.3197 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0943
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.812 +$0.7608 )= $2.5725
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.642 - $2.573 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.0699
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.346 / $2.474
Speedway Low/High: $2.339 / $2.459
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8114 ( $0.040 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.545
Indy average ( $2.414 ) is $0.131 under USA average
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 19, 2009 12:40:49 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8712 +$0.5550 ) = $2.4262
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.406 - $2.4262 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0202 (measured with $2.459 spike price)
Indy Gas Chart
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.885 +$0.7660 )= $2.6510
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.627 - $2.651 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0240
Indy Diesel Chart
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.369 / $2.459
Speedway Low/High: $2.369 / $2.459
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.8810 ( $0.010 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.548
Indy average ( $2.406 ) is $0.142 under USA average
Just a re-posting of yesterday's numbers. Baby's been slow to come, so I have had time to rework the spreadsheet, and add diesel charts to the mix. Hope you like it.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 18, 2009 7:37:42 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8649 +$0.5545 ) = $2.4194
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.448 - $2.4194 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0286
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.893 +$0.7665 )= $2.6594
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.652 - $2.659 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.007
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.354 / $2.474
Speedway Low/High: $2.369 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.885 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.551
Indy average ( $2.448 ) is $0.103 under USA average
Chart
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dbgindy
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Message Posted: Sep 18, 2009 4:16:00 AM
Pax- Things won't be "normal" for you for about the next 18 years or so. ;-)
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 17, 2009 11:37:49 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8712 +$0.5550 ) = $2.4262
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.406 - $2.4262 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0328 (measured with $2.459 spike price)
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.900 +$0.7670 )= $2.6667
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.627 - $2.667 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.040
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.369 / $2.459
Speedway Low/High: $2.369 / $2.459
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.891 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.548
Indy average ( $2.406 ) is $0.142 under USA average
Chart
Tomorrow I will probably be taking the day off. I may be able to get my numbers and post them later, but it's quite possible I won't. Tomorrow morning my wife is going to be induced into labor. Please, post all well wishing and congrats to my other thread, "Baby Pax on the way..."
This day's numbers were shortened as well. The high low numbers are both from Speedway, because I didn't have the time to get the GasBuddy top and bottom 15. There will also be no new chart until things get back to normal.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 16, 2009 8:04:19 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8608 +$0.5543 ) = $2.4151
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.391 - $2.4151 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0241
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.885 +$0.7659 )= $2.6505
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.620 - $2.651 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.030
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.264 / $2.498
Speedway Low/High: $2.229 / $2.419
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.881 ( $0.020 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.549
Indy average ( $2.391 ) is $0.158 under USA average
Chart
Wholesale is up again, almost 9 cents in the last two days. Margins have dried up to almost nothing/negative numbers. If you are needing gas, I'd fill up tonight or early tomorrow. We could spike up to the same levels seen during the last spike, although the NW counties in Indiana may get a better break since the Chicago RBOB spot is only 2 cents over the Chicago Spot.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 15, 2009 7:51:39 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8067 +$0.5505 ) = $2.3572
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.411 - $2.3572 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0538
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.813 +$0.7609 )= $2.5735
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.623 - $2.573 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.050
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.284 / $2.514
Speedway Low/High: $2.269 / $2.449
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.877 ( $0.070 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.556
Indy average ( $2.411 ) is $0.145 under USA average
Chart
Margins are tighter as wholesale springs up a bit. Still need to see the DOE report before we see where prices go on Thursday. Speedway has only spiked twice in the last 6 weeks, however.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 14, 2009 6:15:41 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.7882 +$0.5492 ) = $2.3374
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.438 - $2.3374 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1006
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.767 +$0.7577 )= $2.5249
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.631 - $2.525 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.106
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.326 / $2.508
Speedway Low/High: $2.279 / $2.489
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.858 ( $0.070 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.563
Indy average ( $2.438 ) is $0.125 under USA average
Chart
Live! From the Methodist Hospital in downtown Indianapolis... Not much to report, just a slight drop in wholesale and a drop in average over the weekend. Prices should continue to fall.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 11, 2009 5:44:44 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.7998 +$0.5500 ) = $2.3498
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.476 - $2.3498 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1262
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.761 +$0.7573 )= $2.5181
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.639 - $2.518 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.121
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.388 / $2.516
Speedway Low/High: $2.379 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.880 ( $0.080 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.579
Indy average ( $2.476 ) is $0.103 under USA average
Chart
Wholesale is falling fast. Look for your prices to do the same over the weekend.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 10, 2009 5:35:39 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8436 +$0.5531 ) = $2.3967
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.486 - $2.3967 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0893
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.821 +$0.7615 )= $2.5825
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.639 - $2.582 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.057
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.352 / $2.506
Speedway Low/High: $2.399 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.924 ( $0.080 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.577
Indy average ( $2.486 ) is $0.091 under USA average
Chart
Spike data:
Speedway average before/after/move: $2.351/2.499/+0.148
Indy average before/after/move: $2.374/2.486/+0.112
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 9, 2009 5:53:51 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8731 +$0.5551 ) = $2.4282
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.388 - $2.4282 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0708 (measured with $2.499 spike price)
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.839 +$0.7628 )= $2.6022
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.640 - $2.602 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.038
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.286 / $2.508
Speedway Low/High: $2.499 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.953 ( $0.080 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.569
Indy average ( $2.388 ) is $0.181 under USA average
Chart
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renbutler
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Message Posted: Sep 9, 2009 9:28:50 AM
Speedway web site lists $2.499 across the board now.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 9, 2009 9:16:30 AM
Just got a Meijer alert. No moves on the Speedway website, yet.
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dbgindy
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Message Posted: Sep 9, 2009 4:14:20 AM
Topped off last night. Thanks as always for the insight.
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ccrb
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Message Posted: Sep 8, 2009 11:19:26 PM
have a fairly long trip in the truck tomorrow. Thanks.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 8, 2009 5:56:51 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8830 +$0.5558 ) = $2.4388
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.374 - $2.4388 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0648
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.838 +$0.7626 )= $2.6001
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.640 - $2.600 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.040
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.280 / $2.509
Speedway Low/High: $2.289 / $2.459
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.964 ( $0.081 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.576
Indy average ( $2.374 ) is $0.202 under USA average
Chart
With Indianapolis' rack price falling 20 cents lower than Detroit's, and Chicago's falling right in the middle for the week, I am giving Indiana an 8 cent discount on the Chicago rack, and giving Michigan an 8 cent surplus.
With that said, we are in spike territory. Not only did we see a spike up in wholesale today (6.4 cents), but we also saw prices fall over the long holiday weekend. Since the DOE's weekly report doesn't come out until Thursday due to the holiday, expect Speedway to treat it like a Tuesday and hike prices across the board (unless they don't do that anymore).
We have already seen some movement in Indiana, as the Family Express gas chain has pumped up prices at their NW, N. Central Indiana stores to $2.69. Since the Chicago RBOB fair price would be near $2.60 this is near where Speedway would go up in that area. I expect the rest of Indiana will rise to the low $2.50 to 2.60 range, while Michigan and NW Indiana should be in the $2.60 to $2.70 range.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 4, 2009 5:45:33 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8363 +$0.5525 ) = $2.3888
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.399 - $2.3888 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0102
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.783 +$0.7588 )= $2.5418
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.660 - $2.542 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.118
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.284 / $2.511
Speedway Low/High: $2.319 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.906 ( $0.070 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.583
Indy average ( $2.399 ) is $0.184 under USA average
Chart
Weird things are afoot, as I have posted elsewhere on these boards. But there still shouldn't be a widespread move by Speedway this weekend, with the margins the way they are. Only time will tell. While possible, I find it highly unlikely.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 3, 2009 5:37:21 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8670 +$0.5547 ) = $2.4217
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.404 - $2.4217 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0177
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.795 +$0.7597 )= $2.5547
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.662 - $2.555 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.107
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.302 / $2.513
Speedway Low/High: $2.279 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.937 ( $0.070 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.591
Indy average ( $2.404 ) is $0.187 under USA average
Chart
Since there wasn't a spike, and there wasn't a big rise in the markets today, we are most likely not going to have a spike tomorrow, and the weekend is looking good at the moment. Only a catastrophic move up in the markets will cause a spike over the weekend.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 2, 2009 6:06:45 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8911 +$0.5564 ) = $2.4475
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.417 - $2.4475 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0305
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.801 +$0.7600 )= $2.5605
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.673 - $2.561 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.112
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.322 / $2.548
Speedway Low/High: $2.299 / $2.539
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.969 ( $0.077 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.595
Indy average ( $2.417 ) is $0.178 under USA average
Chart
The margins are close enough that we should skate by without a spike up, despite the upcoming holiday weekend. But it's been a while and the margins are there, at least in Indy. Don't listen to me, keep an eye out for a price increase tomorrow. It shouldn't come, but you can never be sure.
Other news to note, we are 17.8¢ below the national average... wow. Also, we are seeing Speedway's average decline on diesel with the spot price continuing to stay low, down almost 5¢ since the start of the week. This doesn't mean Speedway is leading the way, there is no other average indicator for me to go by.
[Edited by: Paxman356 at 9/2/2009 6:09:42 PM EST]
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Sep 1, 2009 5:58:16 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8576 +$0.5540 ) = $2.4116
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.440 - $2.4116 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0284
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.820 +$0.7614 )= $2.5809
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.704 - $2.581 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.124
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.331 / $2.550
Speedway Low/High: $2.319 / $2.549
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.918 ( $0.060 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.604
Indy average ( $2.440 ) is $0.164 under USA average
Chart
I am now cutting the fair price for Indy and Indiana by 8 cents, due to the Indy rack price now being 10 cents below Chicago. This will put us firmly into safe territory going into DOE report day.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 31, 2009 6:18:29 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8799 +$0.5856 ) = $2.4655
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.460 - $2.4655 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0055
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.854 +$0.7637 )= $2.6172
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.720 - $2.617 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.103
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.343 / $2.561
Speedway Low/High: $2.329 / $2.549
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.935 ( $0.055 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.606
Indy average ( $2.460 ) is $0.146 under USA average
Chart
With the big dip in NYMEX and the Chicago spot today, we may get by without a spike tomorrow.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 28, 2009 6:05:36 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.9374 +$0.5896 ) = $2.5270
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.440 - $2.5270 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0870
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.924 +$0.7687 )= $2.6927
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.723 - $2.693 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.030
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.359 / $2.520
Speedway Low/High: $2.349 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.012 ( $0.075 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.603
Indy average ( $2.440 ) is $0.163 under USA average
Chart
With the margins growing going into the weekend, we can expect an Atlas Oil/Family Express like company to spike their prices up, and everyone in the area follow. I do not expect Speedway to spike on a Saturday, but that doesn't mean they haven't, or won't. Just keep an eye on your local gas stations, because a spike is coming, whether it is next week or this weekend.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 27, 2009 5:41:11 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.9034 +$0.5872 ) = $2.4906
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.461 - $2.4906 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0296
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.913 +$0.7679 )= $2.6804
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.723 - $2.680 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.042
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.386 / $2.550
Speedway Low/High: $2.379 / $2.499
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.978 ( $0.075 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.610
Indy average ( $2.461 ) is $0.149 under USA average
I guess I spoke too soon. Even with the fudge factor, we are in the negative on the margin due to a late climb of 5 cents in the market. Let's hope it doesn't mean a spike, but there is the slight possibility. Michigan is above margin, so there is still hope.
Chart
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 26, 2009 5:35:04 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8525 +$0.5837 ) = $2.4362
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.481 - $2.4362 )=
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0448
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.903 +$0.7672 )= $2.6699
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.723 - $2.670 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.053
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.406 / $2.575
Speedway Low/High: $2.389 / $2.559
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.934 ( $0.082 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.610
Indy average ( $2.481 ) is $0.129 under USA average
I have added a 5¢ fudge factor to Indy and Indiana for this week due to the disparity of the rack prices in Chicago and Indiana. That said, seeing positive margins across the board is a good thing, and no spikes until next Tuesday, barring a market catastrophe.
Chart
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 25, 2009 5:54:47 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.8923 +$0.6365 ) = $2.5288
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.500 - $2.5288 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0288
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.900 +$0.7670 )= $2.6665
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.723 - $2.666 )=
Margin over cost + profit: $0.056
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.440 / $2.568
Speedway Low/High: $2.439 / $2.559
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.997 ( $0.105 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.613
Indy average ( $2.500 ) is $0.113 under USA average
Spike has missed us... even without the fudge factor.
Chart
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 25, 2009 9:09:31 AM
There is one factor I haven't put in, yet. The rack price difference between Chicago and Indianapolis. It's about 7 cents difference. That makes break even zero. I don't know how reliable my rack price info is, sometimes it's good, sometimes not. But if we don't jump today (and we haven't so far) I will probably be changing my fair price formula to factor this in.
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dbgindy
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Message Posted: Aug 25, 2009 4:20:29 AM
Thanks Pax. Topped off last night just in case....
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 24, 2009 5:42:40 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.9441 +$0.6401 ) = $2.5842
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.514 - $2.5842 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0702
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.951 +$0.7706 )= $2.7215
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.709 - $2.721 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.012
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.462 / $2.570
Speedway Low/High: $2.459 / $2.559
Chicago RBOB spot: $1.905 ( $0.039 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.618
Indy average ( $2.514 ) is $0.104 under USA average
We are looking good for a spike tomorrow. The margin is low enough Speedway may jump. But it's not so low that it's guaranteed. They may wait to see what Wednesday's DOE report entails.
Chart
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 21, 2009 5:13:21 PM
Chicago spot gasoline:
Fair price: ( $1.9206 +$0.6384 ) = $2.5590
Average selling price - fair price: ( $2.551 - $2.5590 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0080
Chicago low sulfur diesel:
Fair price: ( $1.932 +$0.7693 )= $2.7017
Average selling price (SSA) - fair price: ( $2.692 - $2.702 )=
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.009
Indy statistics:
Lowest/highest prices: $2.480 / $2.569
Speedway Low/High: $2.479 / $2.559
Chicago RBOB spot: $2.011 ( $0.090 over Chicago spot)
USA Average: $2.621
New formatting. Tell me how you like it.
Chart
[Edited by: Paxman356 at 8/21/2009 5:19:23 PM EST]
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 20, 2009 5:50:17 PM
Chicago spot: $1.9022 DOWN 0.0374
Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6372 ): $2.5394
Average Selling Price: $2.443
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0196 (measured with $2.559 spike price)
USA Average: $2.613
Lowest/highest prices: $2.322 / $2.567
Speedway Low/High: $2.519 / $2.559
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.910 DOWN 0.0235
LS Diesel Fair Price (LSDS +$0.7677 ): $2.678
Speedway Diesel Average: +$2.6888 Margin over cost: $0.011
Chicago RBOB spot $1.992
Chart
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 20, 2009 11:46:08 AM
Very odd indeed. Way under where I thought it would be. Worth keeping an eye on.
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renbutler
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Message Posted: Aug 20, 2009 9:58:12 AM
Speedway's web site now shows every station at $2.559. Is this just the first step in a two-tiered hike?
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SE3.5
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Message Posted: Aug 20, 2009 8:21:10 AM
Thanks again. I topped off yesterday at $2.31.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2009 5:47:46 PM
Chicago spot: $1.9396 UP 0.0144
Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6398 ): $2.5794
Average Selling Price: $2.414
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.1654
USA Average: $2.616
Lowest/highest prices: $2.274 / $2.541
Speedway Low/High: $2.259 / $2.559
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.934 UP 0.0462
LS Diesel Fair Price (LSDS +$0.7694 ): $2.703
Speedway Diesel Average: +$2.6601 Margin over cost: -$0.043
Chicago RBOB spot $2.030
Just to reiterate. We will have a spike tomorrow. It should fall somewhere between $2.60 and $2.75. I know that is a big swing, but it's been a little hard to predict lately. Fill up before it goes up.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 18, 2009 5:43:10 PM
Chicago spot: $1.9252 UP 0.0437
Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6388 ): $2.5640
Average Selling Price: $2.441
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.1230
USA Average: $2.619
Lowest/highest prices: $2.309 / $2.559
Speedway Low/High: $2.269 / $2.559
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.888 UP 0.0410
LS Diesel Fair Price (LSDS +$0.7661 ): $2.654
Speedway Diesel Average: +$2.6501 Margin over cost: -$0.003
Chicago RBOB spot $2.015
We are approaching dangerous territory. A spike tomorrow is possible, but we usually don't see them on Wednesday. Keep an eye on Speedway in the morning, as the prices may go up.
Chart
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Aug 17, 2009 8:47:56 PM
Chicago spot: $1.8815 UP 0.0060
Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6357 ): $2.5172
Average Selling Price: $2.462
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0552
USA Average: $2.623
Lowest/highest prices: $2.342 / $2.606
Speedway Low/High: $2.329 / $2.589
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.847 UP 0.0005
LS Diesel Fair Price (LSDS +$0.7633 ): $2.610
Speedway Diesel Average: +$2.6501 Margin over cost: $0.040
Chicago RBOB spot $1.972
Prices went down over the weekend, but wholesale didn't. A spike tomorrow is possible, but I'm not 100% sure of it.
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