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Paxman356

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Message Posted: May 1, 2009 1:16:11 PM

The purpose of this thread is to help predict the cost stations are paying in order to predict when a spike is eminent.

The fair price is calculated as such:

IR + (IR*.07) + ST + FT + IC + CO + FR

IR = Indiana Rack
IR*.07 = Indiana Sales Tax (7%)
ST = State Tax or 18c
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4c
IC = Inspection Charge or 1c
CO = Cost adjustment or 8c
FR = Freight cost or 5c

The daily high/low prices are an average of the 15 reported high/low prices on the IndyGasPrices.com website taken at the time of posting.

The Speedway high/low is taken from their website at time of posting.

Feel free to chime in whenever you see fit.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jul 9, 2009 1:56:47 PM

Midday report:

Chicago spot: $1.672 (-0.13c)
Fair Price: $2.293
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jul 8, 2009 6:33:50 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.6777 -$0.0976
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6214 ): $2.2992
Average Selling Price: $2.529
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.2298
USA Average: $2.572
Lowest/highest prices: $2.427 / $2.634
Speedway Low/High: $2.409 / $2.659
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.563 -0.068
LS Diesel Fair Price (LSDS +$0.7434 ): $2.306
Chicago RBOB spot $1.753

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Paxman356
Champion Author Indianapolis

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Message Posted: Jul 8, 2009 2:20:35 PM

Midday report:

Chicago spot: $1.7099 (-6.54c)
Fair Price: $2.334
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Paxman356
Champion Author Indianapolis

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Message Posted: Jul 7, 2009 6:00:45 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.7753 -$0.0051
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6283 ): $2.4036
Average Selling Price: $2.557
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1534
USA Average: $2.583
Lowest/highest prices: $2.449 / $2.666
Speedway Low/High: $2.419 / $2.659
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.631 -0.026
LS Diesel Fair Price (LSDs +$0.7481 ): $2.379
Chicago RBOB spot $1.845

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Paxman356
Champion Author Indianapolis

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Message Posted: Jul 7, 2009 1:42:21 PM

Midday report:

Chicago spot: $1.7653 (-1.51c)
Fair Price: $2.393
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CaptToadYubie
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Message Posted: Jul 7, 2009 11:00:27 AM

Let's hope this continues.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jul 6, 2009 6:12:33 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.7804 -$0.0754
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6286 ): $2.4090
Average Selling Price: $2.580
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1710
USA Average: $2.592
Lowest/highest prices: $2.473 / $2.682
Speedway Low/High: $2.489 / $2.659
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.657 -$0.0500
Chicago RBOB spot $1.850

Dropped like a lead balloon. That's that the Chicago spot has done since the month began, down almost 21 cents since the 30th. You can expect the prices you see at the pump to fall like they did this weekend, a whole 7 cents here in Indianapolis.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jul 6, 2009 1:06:44 PM

Chicago spot: $1.774 (-8.15c)
Fair Price: $2.402
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jul 2, 2009 5:41:16 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.8558 -$0.0732
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6339 ): $2.4897
Average Selling Price: $2.650
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1603
USA Average: $2.616
Lowest/highest prices: $2.574 / $2.674
Speedway Low/High: $2.619 / $2.659
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.707 -$0.0691
Chicago RBOB spot $1.931

There is plenty of margin for gas prices to fall over the weekend. The Chicago spot price tumbled today more than 7 cents. Gas prices should fall toward the $2.50s by Monday or Tuesday, and spots could fall into the $2.40s.

[L=http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v432/paxman356/Indy.png][/L]
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IndyPoolPlayer
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Message Posted: Jul 1, 2009 10:24:31 PM

Looks like the spike is in progress on the East side - was as low as $2.47 at lunchtime now $2.65
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jul 1, 2009 6:11:40 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.9290 -$0.0380
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6390 ): $2.5680
Average Selling Price: $2.572
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1310
USA Average: $2.612
Lowest/highest prices: $2.440 / $2.683
Speedway Low/High: $2.629 / $2.659
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.776 -$0.0270
Chicago RBOB spot $2.004

Spot prices fell today. But today's spike in price was due to Monday's big spike in the spot price of almost 9 cents. A report today stated that the $2.69 US average would be the high for the year barring any unforeseen problems in supply. Let's hope that's true.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jul 1, 2009 1:45:44 PM

Back by popular demand... The midday report:

Chicago spot: 1.9532
Fair Price: 2.5939


[Edited by: Paxman356 at 7/1/2009 1:46:02 PM EST]
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 30, 2009 6:11:11 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.9670 +$0.0066
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6417 ): $2.6087
Average Selling Price: $2.555
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0537
USA Average: $2.610
Lowest/highest prices: $2.421 / $2.700
Speedway Low/High: $2.399 / $2.669
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.803 -$0.0560
Chicago RBOB spot $2.037

There was a late rally in the Chicago market, and all losses that were seen at the noon hour were erased. There is good news, however. The BP refinery opened back up to full capacity today. Also, the late rally scattered buyers, meaning the outlook looks like a fall in the price for the rest of the shortened week.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 29, 2009 5:45:47 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.9604 +$0.0885
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6412 ): $2.6016
Average Selling Price: $2.571
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0306
USA Average: $2.616
Lowest/highest prices: $2.442 / $2.714
Speedway Low/High: $2.419 / $2.679
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.859 +$0.0477
Chicago RBOB spot $2.030

A big jump today in the market price brings us to the possibility of a spike tomorrow. It's been a while since we had one, so it is likely to come, probably somewhere in the $2.67-2.73 range.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 26, 2009 5:31:44 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.8719 -$0.0297
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6350 ): $2.5069
Average Selling Price: $2.636
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1291
USA Average: $2.632
Lowest/highest prices: $2.508 / $2.773
Speedway Low/High: $2.519 / $2.799
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.811 -$0.0376
Chicago RBOB spot $1.942

Go to www.thegasgame.com for my thoughts on this weekend's prices.

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[Edited by: Paxman356 at 6/26/2009 5:32:01 PM EST]
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 25, 2009 5:26:22 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.9016 +$0.0591
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6371 ): $2.5387
Average Selling Price: $2.670
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1313
USA Average: $2.640
Lowest/highest prices: $2.546 / $2.784
Speedway Low/High: $2.549 / $2.799
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.849 +$0.0405
Chicago RBOB spot $1.972

Today's news was not so good. Yesterday's market drop vanished as speculators ran up the price almost 6 cents. It's safe to say gas prices won't go up before the weekend, and even that they should continue to drop.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 24, 2009 5:15:23 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.8031 -$0.0726
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6302 ): $2.4333
Average Selling Price: $2.699
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.2657
USA Average: $2.650
Lowest/highest prices: $2.574 / $2.808
Speedway Low/High: $2.569 / $2.799
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.808 -$0.0309
Chicago RBOB spot $1.913

Today's DOE report was promising. Demand was down and supplies were up. This sets Indiana and Michigan up for lower prices going into the weekend. A week without a spike is definitely in the making.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 24, 2009 3:58:40 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $1.8757 +$0.0160
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6353 ): $2.5110
Average Selling Price: $2.719
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.2080
USA Average: $2.656
Lowest/highest prices: $2.567 / $2.818
Speedway Low/High: $2.529 / $2.869
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.839 +$0.0490
Chicago RBOB spot $1.946

Posting numbers from yesterday. Thought I put them in, but I obviously didn't hit submit.

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IndyPoolPlayer
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Message Posted: Jun 23, 2009 9:31:44 AM

Channel 13 last night ran story about the average price in Indy being $2.86!

Me thinks they spend too much time at the Marathon at 9th & Delaware
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 23, 2009 8:39:02 AM

Yesterday's Chicago spot price: $1.8597 -$0.2117
Yesterday's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.634 ): $2.494

Seems a lot has happened since I left for vacation. First, when I was looking at gas prices in St. Louis, they were almost all below $2.49, some as low as $2.40. By the time I left, the low was pushed into the $2.50s, and highs were almost $2.70. All in a weekend.

This is on the heals of a historic drop in Chicago spot price, almost 21 cents since Thursday. I'm calling on all stations to start dropping prices. Their is a 24 cent gap between the fair price and yesterday's average in Indy. The prices have no place to go but down.
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roadhog3
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Message Posted: Jun 19, 2009 11:48:31 AM

I filled up before the spike. Thanks Paxman!
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IndyPoolPlayer
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Message Posted: Jun 18, 2009 10:45:51 PM

Let's see if this spike sticks. Eastside was still going down as of this morning. Post Road was in the 2.55 - 2.60 range today.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 18, 2009 5:24:20 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.0545 -$0.0156
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6478 ): $2.7023
Average Selling Price: $2.680
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0223
USA Average: $2.668
Lowest/highest prices: $2.561 / $2.846
Speedway Low/High: $2.789 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.897 -$0.0175

As predicted (missed it by "that much") Indianapolis saw an increase by Speedway today to $2.799. We should see margins increase as the average follows the next couple days. Or we would see it if I were going to update. I'm taking a couple days off from here and making it a long weekend. I'll be seeing you Tuesday!

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dbgindy
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Message Posted: Jun 18, 2009 4:30:43 AM

As always thanks for the heads up Pax.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 17, 2009 9:19:56 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.0701 -$0.0560
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6489 ): $2.7190
Average Selling Price: $2.663
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0560
USA Average: $2.660
Lowest/highest prices: $2.555 / $2.835
Speedway Low/High: $2.559 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.915 +$0.0495

I'm pretty sure we will get a spike tomorrow. I'm predicting $2.80 again on TheGasGame.com. Be sure to keep an eye on Speedway in the morning.

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SE3.5
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Message Posted: Jun 17, 2009 8:14:40 AM

OK Pax, I shall fill up this morning.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 16, 2009 5:56:32 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.1261 +$0.0491
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6528 ): $2.7789
Average Selling Price: $2.688
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0909
USA Average: $2.648
Lowest/highest prices: $2.590 / $2.839
Speedway Low/High: $2.579 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.865 +$0.0144

We saw an uptick in RBOB and Chicago spot to put us in the red with our fair price. After a week without a spike, Thursday is looking to get one.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 15, 2009 7:05:46 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.0770 -$0.0159
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6494 ): $2.7264
Average Selling Price: $2.707
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0194
USA Average: $2.643
Lowest/highest prices: $2.601 / $2.834
Speedway Low/High: $2.599 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.851 -$0.0230

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 12, 2009 5:09:05 PM

I forgot my laptop at work (I packed everything else... d'oh!) so today you'll just get the highlights without the fair price.

Chicago spot: $2.0929 +$0.008
Indy Average: $2.769
Indy low/high: $2.678/2.895
Speedway low/high: $2.679/2.899
Low sulfur diesel: $1.8736 -$0.012

[Edited by: Paxman356 at 6/12/2009 5:11:42 PM EST]
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 11, 2009 7:12:08 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.0849 -$0.0354
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6499 ): $2.7348
Average Selling Price: $2.792
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0572
USA Average: $2.609
Lowest/highest prices: $2.695 / $2.900
Speedway Low/High: $2.689 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.886 +$0.0283

Chicago spot almost fell below the NYMEX RBOB for the first time since the 15th. Our prices continue to go down while nationally the prices are still going up.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 11, 2009 2:06:57 PM

Mid-day report:

Mid-day Chicago spot price: $2.0655 (-5.48¢)
Mid-day Fair Price (Chi. Spot + 64.9¢): $2.714

Mid-day Chicago LS Diesel: $1.8891 (+3.15¢)

As RBOB rises, Chicago spot drops. Good news for our immediate prices, not good for the future.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 10, 2009 6:27:54 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.1203 +$0.0661
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6524 ): $2.7727
Average Selling Price: $2.813
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0403
USA Average: $2.601
Lowest/highest prices: $2.708 / $2.900
Speedway Low/High: $2.699 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.858 +$0.0250

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 10, 2009 2:09:55 PM

Mid-day report:

Mid-day Chicago spot price: $2.1239 (+6.97¢)
Mid-day Fair Price (Chi. Spot + 65.3¢): $2.777

Mid-day Chicago LS Diesel: $1.853 (+2.04¢)
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IndyPoolPlayer
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Message Posted: Jun 10, 2009 1:48:11 PM

What's going on with diesel? I see the gap between diesel and gasoline is narrowing quite significantly.
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 9, 2009 5:43:57 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.0542 -$0.0618
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6478 ): $2.7020
Average Selling Price: $2.835
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.1330
USA Average: $2.596
Lowest/highest prices: $2.740 / $2.900
Speedway Low/High: $2.749 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.833 +$0.0422

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 9, 2009 1:59:46 PM

They may be slow to react to these lower wholesale prices because they turned a -2 cent per gallon profit in May. At least that's what I hear from a reliable source.

Mid-day report:

Mid-day Chicago spot price: $2.0393 (-7.67¢)
Mid-day Fair Price (Chi. Spot + 64.7¢): $2.686

Mid-day Chicago LS Diesel: $1.8191 (+2.87¢)

When the walls, come rumblin', tumblin', dooooowwwwwnnnnnn!
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IndyPoolPlayer
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Message Posted: Jun 8, 2009 6:52:31 PM

I see a few stations along my route are a whole 2-3c cheaper now. They holding out for the next price shock?
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 8, 2009 6:22:06 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.1160 -$0.1586
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6521 ): $2.7681
Average Selling Price: $2.860
Margin over cost + profit: +$0.0919
USA Average: $2.593
Lowest/highest prices: $2.759 / $2.909
Speedway Low/High: $2.769 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.790 +$0.0028

To all gas companies:

See the fair price? See how it went down 21 cents the last two business days? That's where I expect you to follow.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 8, 2009 12:47:03 PM

Mid-day report:

Mid-day Chicago spot price: $2.1296 (-14.49¢)
Mid-day Fair Price (Chi. Spot + 65.3¢): $2.783

Mid-day Chicago LS Diesel: $1.7935 (-0.59¢)

At least I didn't jinx it... yet.
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SE3.5
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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2009 8:35:36 AM

I can hold off filling up for about another 7 days. Oops, I promised to take my grandson to the air show.
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dbgindy
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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2009 8:14:12 AM

I hope you didn't either Pax... LOL
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2009 5:37:58 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.2746 -$0.0725
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6632 ): $2.9378
Average Selling Price: $2.888
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.0498
USA Average: $2.580
Lowest/highest prices: $2.724 / $2.900
Speedway Low/High: $2.879 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.788 -$0.0189

It is good news to see the Chicago spot go down. It is doubly good news to know that it's about time to switch to July contracts, which are 10 cents lower, still. Let's hope I didn't just jinx it.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2009 1:02:19 PM

Mid-day report:

Mid-day Chicago spot price: $2.2885 (-5.68¢)
Mid-day Fair Price (Chi. Spot + 66.4¢): $2.953

Mid-day Chicago LS Diesel: $1.8049 (-0.16¢)
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2009 5:49:38 AM

There is no way they should be selling at the price they are selling if the Chicago spot is a guide. But there are other factors at hand. This is the end of day selling price, for starters, and some may have gotten in earlier buys with smaller prices. It is also possible there is gas flowing in from cheaper surrounding areas as well. I wish I had information on local rack pricing, it would make this a lot easier. But I will do as I can do for now.
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dbgindy
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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2009 4:34:21 AM

Looks like if it goes up today we may even see a Saturday spike ( it's rare I know but it has happened).....
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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 4, 2009 5:05:06 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.3471 +$0.0455
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6683 ): $3.0154
Average Selling Price: $2.764
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.1164
USA Average: $2.564
Lowest/highest prices: $2.695 / $2.899
Speedway Low/High: $2.899 / $2.899
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.807 +$0.0481

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 3, 2009 5:13:32 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.3016 +$0.0114
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6651 ): $2.9667
Average Selling Price: $2.752
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.2147
USA Average: $2.550
Lowest/highest prices: $2.691 / $2.764
Speedway Low/High: $2.719 / $2.759
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.758 -$0.0620

While wholesale continues to climb, there was good news today. The DOE reported that the Midwest is already beginning to see gas reserves climb, even without refineries reopening. The move up today was again caused by a late day climb due to a buy for prompt pipeline delivery.

The spike is still on for tomorrow.

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Paxman356
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Message Posted: Jun 3, 2009 12:51:44 PM

Mid-day report:

Mid-day Chicago spot price: $2.2625 (-2.77¢)
Mid-day Fair Price (Chi. Spot + 66.2¢): $2.925

Mid-day Chicago LS Diesel: $1.7720 (-4.84¢)
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SE3.5
Champion Author Indianapolis

Posts:11,261
Points:2,189,150
Joined:May 2004
Message Posted: Jun 3, 2009 8:09:51 AM

You are the man, pax. I manage to fill up about 30 minutes before the general hike.
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Paxman356
Champion Author Indianapolis

Posts:6,858
Points:452,100
Joined:Feb 2003
Message Posted: Jun 2, 2009 5:14:36 PM

Today's Chicago spot price: $2.2902 +$0.1359
Today's Fair Price (Chi. Spot +$0.6643 ): $2.9545
Average Selling Price: $2.635
Margin over cost + profit: -$0.2045
USA Average: $2.524
Lowest/highest prices: $2.505 / $2.761
Speedway Low/High: $2.749 / $2.759
Low Sulfur Diesel Spot: $1.820 +$0.0189

The market went insane today, as a buyer for a refiner on the Wolverine Pipeline drove the price through the roof again, a whole 13.59 cents. The spike today may just be the beginning, but I believe it may be the beginning of the end. I have been saying all this time the bubble has to burst, and all we have to do is look to the west, where Group 3 N-grade regular is at $1.9552.

We do have refinery issues left to fix, and the BP FCC unit should be online within 2-3 weeks. I'd hate to agree with GasBuddy oil analyst Patrick DeHaan, but $3 could be a possibility before this is all through, but the pain should end before the month does.

Chart
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Paxman356
Champion Author Indianapolis

Posts:6,858
Points:452,100
Joined:Feb 2003
Message Posted: Jun 2, 2009 12:40:29 PM

Mid-day report:

Mid-day Chicago spot price: $2.2155 (+6.12¢)
Mid-day Fair Price (Chi. Spot + 65.9¢): $2.875

Mid-day Chicago LS Diesel: $1.8075 (+0.6¢)
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